Global competition for international students is increasing, with more than four in five (83%) prospective students considering multiple destinations as they weigh visa prospects, costs and the return on their education investment.
IDP Education’s latest Emerging Futures research found that certainty is driving student behaviour more than ever, and that visa settings are one of the most important factors.
In addition, visa settings are now influencing that competition earlier in the student journey. Half of prospective and applied students (51%) said their chances of obtaining a student visa strongly influenced the destinations they would consider, while nearly half of applied students (47%) considered their visa prospects before or during destination shortlisting.
Simon Emmett, Chief Partner Officer, IDP Education, said the findings showed no destination can afford to take international student demand for granted.
“With fewer internationally mobile students, the global race for talent is intensifying and students have more choice than ever,” said Mr Emmett.
“Countries aren’t just competing on the strength of their universities anymore. Policy certainty, affordability and the opportunities available to students during and after their studies are increasingly part of the equation.
“Governments, universities and partners must work together to strengthen system integrity, but for quality students, the message must remain welcoming.”
Australia illustrates how quickly competitive positions can shift when unwelcoming messages are sent. In just six months, its lead as students’ first-choice destination has fallen from 31% to 24% amid a backdrop of many policy changes, while the UK and US have both increased and now sit close behind at 21%.
"International student numbers are not a tap we can simply turn back on when we choose to. Countries must be mindful that the policies they implement and the messages they send do not result in an over-correction in student demand, sending thousands of students elsewhere. Once a student chooses another country, it’s incredibly hard to win them back," said Mr Emmett.
The research shows students are actively keeping their options open, with interest emerging beyond the traditional major English-speaking study destinations. Some 59% of prospective students would consider studying at an international branch campus, up from 52% in the previous survey, with reduced overall cost now the leading motivator for considering these options.
As students weigh more options, they are drawing on a wide range of information sources. While 41% identified generative AI as a source used in international study decisions, 37% also turned to education counsellors, reinforcing the importance of trusted human guidance in high-stakes decisions. AI is validating rather than redirecting choice, with 61% of prospective and applied students saying it confirmed their decisions and 23% saying it changed their preferences.
Looking ahead, AI is also influencing students’ ambitions. A third (33%) of prospective and applied students said AI-related job opportunities had increased their interest in a subject and 42% of prospective, applied and current students identified AI and technology skills as most important for future job success.
Together, the findings point to a global student landscape that could look very different in the years ahead, as technology influences choice and further intensifies competition for students.
For more information about the latest edition of IDP’s Emerging Futures, Voice of the International Student research, visit partners.idp.com/emergingfutures