Visa certainty, quality and value now driving where international students choose to study
More than three quarters of international students are “shopping globally” by comparing more than one destination before deciding where to study, according to the latest Emerging Futures, Voice of the International Student research by IDP Education. Some 78 per cent of students said they were considering multiple options, up from 66 per cent in October 2024.
The research, based on more than 5,800 responses from prospective and current international students across 118 countries and regions as well as interviews with IDP education counsellors, shows that traditional destinations of Australia, United Kingdom, Canada and the United States remain the leading first-choice study destinations. However, more students are now ruling out their preferred destination earlier in the decision‑making process and considering alternatives. This shift reflects the cumulative impact of increasingly restrictive visa policies, and acts as a warning sign to all destinations that sustained policy tightening can rapidly shift student preferences.
The study also found that visa certainty is moving from a late-stage consideration to something students assess first, as they weigh the true cost to arrive, the likelihood of visa approval and employment pathways, pointing to a strong focus on the value of their investment of an overseas degree.
Additionally, transnational education (TNE) is evolving beyond a low-cost alternative into an option that supports employment opportunities. However, perceptions of TNE quality remain a barrier, with 54 per cent still questioning quality compared to the main campus, reinforcing the importance of transparent standards and outcomes.
Simon Emmett, Chief Partner Officer, IDP Education, said that in a more competitive global market, governments, institutions and the sector need to work together to reinforce quality, integrity and outcomes and avoid a drift toward competing on price and entry requirements.
“Students are behaving more like savvy consumers, comparing destinations based on the return on their investment,” said Mr Emmett.
“If students can’t quickly understand whether they’re likely to qualify, what they’ll need to show and what it will cost up front, they will eliminate destinations sooner or delay plans altogether.
“We’re seeing visa and policy settings increasingly being used to narrow options earlier in the process. Traditional destinations still dominate, but Canada and the United States are being screened out earlier by some students, which is a reminder for Australia and the UK that clarity and certainty matter.
“At the same time, global competition is increasing. Students are considering more destinations and evaluating value, so we need to compete on proposition quality, outcomes and employability, not on a race to the bottom. “That requires sector-wide collaboration: stronger compliance and transparency, rather than shutting down recruitment from whole markets,” he said.
“This research shows us that we constantly need to view barriers to entry through the lens of a student,” Mr Emmett said.
“International students are planning the biggest chapter of their lives while navigating major hurdles. Governments of countries that want to attract the highest quality students should help them understand visa decisions not add uncertainty that drives good students elsewhere,” he said.
Mr Emmett said the sector has an opportunity to lift confidence in international education through greater transparency and accountability, better data on outcomes and visa trends, and enhanced compliance and early warning signals that protect students and support sustainable growth.
Visa-related factors consistently remain strong drivers in study destination choice. Among students who decided not to proceed with international education, the share citing difficulty in obtaining a visa rose to 26 per cent (from 20 per cent in October’s survey), while the share citing visa costs edged up to 27 per cent, making it the third highest reason for not pursuing study plans.
For more information about the latest edition of IDP’s Emerging Futures, Voice of the International Student research, visit partners.idp.com/emergingfutures